TAG Industrial Watch: September 26, 2026

In the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump welcomed the world to send their ships to the U.S. to meet their energy needs. Understanding the impact of a sudden increase in international demand for U.S. oil products, TAG invoked the old adage, “Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.” This past week, the president changed his tune, stating that he would consider banning the export of diesel. Through the first seven months of 2026, petroleum products have trailed only precious metals as the second-fastest-growing export category, not just due to a 28% increase in oil prices, but due to a 10% bump in volume (Census Bureau, EIA, FRED). Just as TAG expected, U.S. oil companies are taking advantage of higher prices overseas, driving up fuel costs here at home.

Regardless of the constitutionality of an export ban, if the president restricts diesel shipments, demand will likely shift toward crude oil itself. In recent years, China has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest oil refining nation by capacity, while building oil refineries in other nations. For industrial real estate investors, the oil industry still offers a great opportunity. Given the potential impact on the dollar, interest rates, and even a political divide between D.C. and states like Texas (the main beneficiary of oil exports), an export ban on diesel fuel and crude oil products entirely, while possible, is unlikely.

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