TAG Industrial Watch: April 4, 2026

With the war in the Middle East surpassing one month, President Trump addressed the nation and world this week. The president made a prophetic statement in welcoming nations affected by oil shortages to come to the U.S. to fulfill their energy needs. Although Saudi Arabia is the leading oil exporter (for now), the U.S. is the largest global producer of oil. Like the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.” At a time in history when nations around the world are looking to reduce their economic reliance on the U.S. dollar, surging oil prices are having a global rippling effect on countless prices. However, both problems can be resolved with the same solution.

As of January, the U.S. federal government owes $9.3 trillion to foreign investors and governments, a debt that the U.S. cannot practically pay back without the use of the printing press. For this simple reason, TAG Industrial has previously foreshadowed the day when foreigners aggressively sell off their U.S. Treasuries and other dollar-denominated assets. Consequently, the dollar would decline in value against foreign currencies, making U.S. goods (primarily oil) more expensive for Americans, but more affordable to foreigners. Unintentionally, this war may become the catalyst that puts this economic shift in motion. If so, oil prices would permanently head much higher.

Much of the domestically produced oil that is consumed by Americans today could easily be sold abroad at higher prices tomorrow. Notably, when oil prices in the U.S. jumped to $112 per barrel following the president’s speech, Brent crude oil (largely traded throughout Europe) available for immediate delivery topped $141/barrel. The potential for the U.S. to leapfrog Saudi Arabia in oil exports would have a monumental impact on the overall U.S. economy but also create a wealth of opportunities for industrial investors in oil-rich markets from Houston & Beaumont to Midland & Odessa.