TAG Industrial Watch: July 11, 2026

The ink on the memorandum of understanding was barely dry before the U.S. and Iran began trading a new round of air strikes this past week. As a result, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has once again come to a halt, putting upward pressure on oil prices and interest rates. The re-escalation of war comes at a time when the U.S. labor market continues to show signs of weakness. Based on the business survey produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy only added 57,000 jobs in June.

However, June’s job numbers will likely be revised lower in subsequent reports, which has been the typical case not just in recent months, but over the last three years. Whereas the household survey shows a different reality. At 162.7 million persons, total employment in June was down by -1.2 million year-over-year. This includes a loss of -1.5 million full-time workers, which means that the only jobs created on net over the last year have been part-time. Since records began, annual reductions in total employment and full-time work have only coincided with times of recession. With consumer prices rising sharply in response to oil supply disruptions and debt-driven monetary inflation, the economy is experiencing an economic phenomenon known as stagflation.

The good news for industrial investors is that we have seen this movie before. During the 1970s and early 1980s, the U.S. economy was plagued by stagflation, ignited by the same forces in play today. The result was a sharp increase in overall commodity prices, with oil prices skyrocketing from about $3 to over $35 per barrel. Given that America’s economic fundamentals are weaker today than 50 years ago, commodity prices could experience an even bigger move this time around, creating a unique opportunity for industrial investors who own properties involved in the production and distribution of key commodities.

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