TAG Industrial Watch: July 4, 2026

Twenty years ago, U.S. field production of crude oil sat 47% below 1970 levels when the nation ranked as the world’s top producer (EIA). To make up for the lack of production, the U.S. emerged as the world’s top net importer of crude oil. At that time, the U.S. maintained a massive lead in oil refining capacity, 2.4x larger than second-place China, whose capacity was just taking off (Global Times). Thanks to the improvements in fracking technology and capital investments, the U.S. has regained its title as the world’s top crude oil producer from Saudi Arabia. April’s daily production of 13.9 million barrels/day sets a new record, up 173% since 2006 (EIA). Today, the U.S. is no longer dependent on crude oil imports and has recently become a net exporter of crude oil, thanks to the impact of the war with Iran (the country has long been a top net exporter of petroleum products).

However, China surpassed the U.S. in oil refining capacity two years ago and is now the world’s top oil importer on net. China is not just expanding its own capacity, but is helping other nations, particularly in Africa, achieve the same. With the world increasing its oil refining capacity, as the U.S. remains stagnant, foreigners now have the ability to import crude oil straight from the U.S. to produce petroleum products at home. This change not only impacts what the U.S. exports but also alters which industrial real estate markets will likely benefit the most. Major oil refining markets like Houston and Beaumont should still do well in the years to come. Yet, Midland/Odessa, the epicenter of America’s resurgence in oil production, is well-positioned to become the top performer. Additionally, markets like Corpus Christi, which export crude oil and natural gas, may surprisingly be among the winners. As the global oil industry evolves, opportunistic industrial investors will need to stay one step ahead.

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