TAG Industrial Watch: April 11, 2026

Within 24 hours of President Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire with Iran, contingent upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel launched another attack on Lebanon, immediately prompting Iran to close the strait again. While it is anybody’s guess how things will play out moving forward, the first month of the war has perhaps provided a sign of things to come that industrial sellers should take note of. In March, interest rates on the closely watched 10-Year Treasury Note jumped 48 basis points to a high of 4.44% before closing the month at 4.27%. As it turns out, foreign central banks, in response to the war, sold off $82 billion of U.S. Treasuries last month as holdings dropped to the lowest level since 2012 (Financial Times).

Despite the Federal Reserve buying up $54 billion of U.S. debt in March, it was not enough to keep rates from rising. If foreign selling continues at such a pace, industrial sellers can expect another big rise in interest rates, consequently pushing up commercial mortgage rates. Given how sensitive commercial real estate demand is to interest rates, owners in the process of selling may need to be flexible on pricing and cap rates if buyers’ purchasing power is suddenly impacted. By doing so, sellers will stay in tune with buyers and potentially avoid a repeat of 2023 when industrial transactions slid by 37% upon Fed rate hikes (CoStar).