TAG Industrial Watch: January 17, 2026

In the September 2025 issue of the Industrial Watch magazine, TAG expressed doubts that tariffs would cause a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing. Instead, TAG focused on the likely impact of the tariffs on the dollar’s exchange value, stating in the magazine, “Assuming the dollar experiences a prolonged decline this time around, many goods produced in the U.S. will become less affordable to Americans but more affordable to foreigners, which in turn boosts exports and improves the underlying value of export-related properties.” So far, TAG’s prediction is coming to fruition in real time.

After experiencing a historic decline in the dollar’s exchange value during the first half of 2025, a hopeful rebound failed to materialize, and the commonly cited U.S. Dollar Index finished the year down 10%, posting the biggest end-of-the-year decline in four decades. In the most recent international trade report, merchandise imports slid by 5.1% annually to $274.2 billion in October, but exports jumped to a nominal monthly record-high of $202.8 billion, up 14.7% from 2024 levels (U.S. Census Bureau). Meanwhile, the average number of manufacturing employees throughout the year declined by -86,000 in 2025 (FRED), and output contracted 10 consecutive months through December (ISM). Given how quickly things are playing out, it may only be a matter of time before export-related properties and markets emerge as the top performers in the industrial market.