TAG Industrial Watch: January 10, 2026

Starting with the economy, TAG projects that the long-anticipated recession may finally become official as the jobs market continues to deteriorate. In 2025, the U.S. dollar index dropped by nearly 10%, marking the sharpest decline in 40 years. Given the global sentiment toward the dollar, TAG anticipates a bigger decline in the dollar’s exchange value in 2026. Last year’s fall in the dollar helped propel commodities (globally priced in dollars) like gold, silver, copper, and platinum to record highs. While oil was left behind, TAG expects a rebound in black gold, which will consequently help reaccelerate consumer prices. Regardless of the Federal Reserve’s attempts, interest rates on government debt will likely remain elevated and could easily rise as foreign investors and central banks continue to trade their Treasuries for gold. Lastly, the trend in international trade that TAG successfully predicted last year will hasten as imports fall and exports rise (despite a contraction in manufacturing).

Turning our attention to the industrial market, after dropping to a 15-year low in 2025, TAG predicts another slowdown in demand, with a possibility of contraction for the year. With demand falling faster than supply, the national vacancy rate will continue its ascent, climbing toward 9.0%. Given the trajectory of rent growth, the annual rate may drop into negative territory within the first half of the year. With imports imploding, big-box vacancy rates will rise faster than the availability of small industrial properties, allowing rent growth for the latter to fall at a slower rate. Lastly, the boom in commodities will provide support to markets such as Midland/Odessa and Houston (oil). The general rise in exports will also provide support to manufacturers of globally traded products that are located in markets from Los Angeles to Chicago. Export-dependent markets and properties will begin to outperform the overall market, shining a light on the biggest opportunities in industrial real estate for years to come.