TAG Industrial Watch: October 31, 2026

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy, in terms of “real” Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in Q3 (discounting the increase in prices). Putting aside the longstanding argument that the government may be grossly underestimating price increases, therefore overstating growth, the recent GDP report puts a spotlight on a major development in the U.S. economy.

The largest contributor to recent GDP reports has been private investment, hitting 3.27% in Q3. In other words, if you exclude private investment, which is being driven by capital expenditures on Artificial Intelligence, economic growth would have stalled out in Q3. Therein lies the biggest story: AI isn’t just a revolutionary technological advancement; it’s the only thing that’s keeping the U.S. economy afloat. This has become evident in our trade data, where merchandise imports set a nominal monthly record high of $353.8 billion in September, resulting in a monthly deficit of -$145.5 billion. Year-to-date through August (September data not available yet), computer-related imports are up 73.3% (adjusted for import prices) compared to the same period in 2025. However, imports collectively are down 2.3% YTD in real terms as non-computer-related goods fell off -15.9%. Given that nearly every facet of the American economy is directly or indirectly dependent upon imports, this indicates that general economic activity is weakening.

If you’re like most industrial owner-users or investors, there’s a reason why you may not be experiencing the same economic growth touted in the headlines. The good news is that industrial property values are still elevated, making it a good time for owner-users to consider a sale-leaseback to support business operations. And for investors to reposition their portfolio to take advantage of the continuous growth in exports, which happen to be up in real terms, with or without computer goods.