TAG Industrial Watch: June 6, 2026

As the classic Wall Street saying goes, “they don’t ring a bell at the top” of the market, but there are always signs. Perhaps the most ominous sign that the highest-valued stock market in U.S. history may be running out of steam is that investment firm Berkshire Hathaway, spearheaded by the legendary investor Warren Buffett, has been a net seller of stocks for 14 consecutive quarters, while building up the largest cash pile in the company’s tenure. Due to the war-induced inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve is not in a position to save the stock market with interest rate cuts (nor the expectation of) as it has done during previous corrections. As a result, a typical correction could quickly evolve into a steep and prolonged bear market, especially if the Fed actually raises rates in a weakening economy.

Given the risk of contagion effects, industrial investors should pay close attention to what happens in the stock market. For example, during the peak of the housing bubble, the S&P 500 index began to show signs of topping out in May 2007. Not coincidentally, industrial transactions and sale prices peaked during Q2 2007. Despite Fed rate cuts, the Great Recession began in late 2007, and the S&P 500 collapsed by over 50%, bottoming out in February 2009 (Macrotrends). While market fundamentals and property values would continue to regress, industrial transactions also bottomed during Q1 2009, down roughly 68% (CoStar, based on top 50 metros, classes A, B, & C, minimum 10,000 square feet). The stock market may not ring a bell at the top, but stocks could serve as the alarm bell that industrial investors should look out for.

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