TAG Industrial Watch: May 9, 2026

As we enter the third month of the U.S./Israeli war with Iran, there is hope of a truce and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty continues to loom. Nonetheless, the war is beginning to have profound effects on the U.S. economy beyond the gas pump. Based on the CRB index, commodities across the board are up 32% on the year. Given that one-third of the world’s seaborne trade in fertilizers passes through the strait, the war is also causing a global shortage of fertilizer, including here in the U.S. The combination of fertilizer shortages and higher oil prices is rapidly pushing up food prices. The entire transportation industry is feeling the brunt of the war’s impact as commercial freight slows sharply and airlines hike prices, cut flights, and reduce services.

For industrial investors, the new trend in international trade that TAG predicted last summer not only remains intact but is being accelerated by the war. Through March, seasonally adjusted imports are down -$131 billion compared to the first three months of 2025 when importers frontloaded tariffs. Whereas exports in the first quarter were up $81 billion annually. While 62% of the bump in exports has thus far been driven by historic shipments of gold and silver (namely to China), oil and other energy-related commodities are joining the party. For the first time since World War II, the U.S. became a net exporter of crude oil in addition to refined products during April. In the process, America’s energy stocks are depleting at an alarming rate.

Although the war is the catalyst for this phenomenon, the trend can persist if international demand for U.S. dollars continues to fade. A collapse in demand for dollars would effectively increase commodity prices in terms of dollars but reduce prices in other currencies. While we hope that the war quickly comes to an end, the impact on exports may be long-lasting, creating untapped opportunities for export-related industrial markets and properties.

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I N D U S T R I A L   N E W S

Freight Capacity Plummets,
Prices Skyrocket In April
Freightwaves – May 5, 2026
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China Scores Another Currency
Win Over The U.S. Dollar
Forbes –  April 28, 2026
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US Oil Stocks Plummet, Country Becomes Net Crude
Exporter On Weekly Basis For First Time, EIA Says
Reuters – April 29, 2026
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China’s April Ethane Imports From the U.S.
Set To Hit All-Time High
Oilprice.com – April 20, 2026
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Made-In-China Tags Are Getting
Harder To Find in U.S. Stores
Investopedia – May 5, 2026
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R E G I O N A L   N E W S

Chicago’s Industrial Market Records
Strong Starts Amid Elevated Vacancy
Commercial Property Executive – April 24, 2026
Read More

Port Houston March Rebound Pushes
Q1 Volumes Past 1M Teus
Freightwaves – April 28, 2026
Read More

California Refineries Max Out Jet
Fuel While Gasoline Starves
Oilprice.com – April 29, 2026
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Supreme Court Says Trump’s Tariffs Are Unconstitutional,
Bringing Relief — And New Questions — To Long Beach, L.A. Ports
Long Beach Post News – February 20, 2026
Read More

Alterra IOS Acquires 5 Industrial Outdoor Storage Properties
Mile High CRE – May 4, 2026
Read More

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