TAG Industrial Watch: February 28, 2026

For the first time on record, demand for big-box warehouse space fully accounted for all of the positive industrial demand in 2025. Across the top 50 metros in the U.S., net absorption among properties over 200,000 SF amounted to 123 million SF, representing 107% of the 115 million SF of total demand across all property sizes. For context, this is a sharp increase from the 43% share that big-box warehouses averaged during the 1990s.

This anomaly occurred because demand for small industrial properties (10,000 to 50,000 SF) contracted again by -13 million SF, yet maintains a vacancy rate half that of big-box. Meanwhile, demand for midsize facilities (50,000 – 200,000 SF) barely remained in positive territory with 5 million SF of net absorption (CoStar). Over the last three years, big-box warehouses have largely kept the industrial market afloat. But with imports on a steady decline, the question remains for how long? Given the recent wave of bankruptcies by commercial trucking companies due to a sudden drop in shipping, demand for big-box space may begin to wane this year. If so, the light on specialized export-related properties may start to shine.