Trump Election: Investor Implications
A wide range of factors will determine whether campaign rhetoric is transformed into action. This report offers a perspective that assumes stated goals are implemented.
- Congressional gridlock to ease. Single-party control of both houses of Congress and the White House increases probability of action. Fiscal policy including tax changes, setting the federal budget and raising the debt ceiling will likely be less contentious.
- Increased infrastructure investment. Potential for economic growth and job creation with a commitment to additional infrastructure investment.
- Repatriation of overseas capital. Proposed temporary tax incentive for corporations to repatriate overseas capital could accelerate corporate investment in the United States.
- Reduced taxes could favor investors. Reduced business and personal taxes could favor investors but the details will matter. Potential changes to carried interest may affect developers and fund managers.
- Deregulation likely. Reduction of regulation including the repeal or modifi cation of Dodd-Frank likely. Potentially less regulation on oil and gas industries.
- Short-term stock market volatility. Elevated post-election uncertainty could spark short-term stock market volatility as Wall Street re-calibrates.
- Potential for rising inflation. Deregulation, infrastructure spending and reduced taxes could spark economic acceleration and increase inflationary pressure.
- Fed still likely to raise rates in December. More aggressive Fed in 2017 increasingly probable.
- Upward pressure on interest rates. Anticipation of increased government debt placing upward pressure on Treasury rates.
- Commercial real estate drivers positive. Job creation, positive demographic trends, wage growth and a generally limited development pipeline sustain the favorable commercial real estate outlook.
FULL REPORT: M&M Special Report_2016 Pres. Election on CRE